IIPM : EXECUTIVE EDUCATION
Mr. Chidambaram faces stark choices all over again
As Dalal Street – along with many other streets from Tokyo to New York – started behaving like a new jet aircraft whose pilot has lost control, one couldn’t but help wondering about the days in mid 1990s when the C. R. Bhansali scam had put paid to the hopes raised by Mr. P. Chidambaram as Finance Minister. The stock market scam then was also associated with two things. First, it was tantalisingly close to and linked with the East Asian melt down of 1997. Second, elections were in the horizon and Mr. Chidambaram threw fiscal caution to the winds by announcing huge Fifth Pay Commission hikes for government servants. Back then, the US economy was still not as profligate a borrower as it is today. Nor were China, Russia, Iran and Venezuela swimming in dollars.
It is 2008 now and there is a strong sense of déjà vu. Stock markets around the world – particularly in Asia – have been tumbling like nine pins on fears of a recession in the US economy. India is no exception except the fact that the economy and Dalal Street are far more integrated with global financial markets than they were in 1997. It will probably be a matter of time before the latest Indian stock market scam is unveiled. Mr. Chidambaram is the Finance Minister who has been often dreaming about dream budgets. General Elections are not too far away. The Sixth Pay Commission has already submitted most of its recommendations for pay hikes for bureaucrats. So don’t be surprised if Mr. Chidambaram surrenders to UPA realpolitik and one of his colleagues announces a huge pay hike for government servants – without a single word on administrative reforms recommended by successive pay commissions.
As it happened after 1997, there are huge chances that Mr. Chidambaram may not remain the Finance Minister because his government will probably be voted out. But once again, his successor will have to struggle with the havoc that has been created by tumbling markets, panicking economies and ‘no comment’ finance ministers who pay more attention to electoral compulsions than their own convictions. Who said history doesn’t repeat itself again and again?
Sutanu Guru
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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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